Best “lock” tonight (highest win probability)

Celtics moneyline vs Nets — High confidence

Why this is the safest side on the board

• Market + matchup agree: Boston is 92% to win (implied by the betting market), the highest on the slate.
• Massive team-quality gap:
  • Celtics: 38–20, +6.9 point differential (114.4 scored / 107.5 allowed)
  • Nets: 15–43, -8.0 point differential (107.0 scored / 115.0 allowed)
• Home/road edge: Celtics at home allow 107.7 PPG, while Nets on the road score only 103.0 PPG and allow 114.7 PPG.
• Spread context: The line is Celtics -18.5 (huge). That’s why I prefer ML as the “lock” (less variance than asking for a blowout cover).

If you want a “lockier” alt option (still strong, lower payout usually)

• Celtics -10.5 (alt spread) — Medium-High confidence
  • Same logic as above, just reducing blowout requirement vs -18.5.

Pass / not a lock: Thunder -7.5 vs Nuggets (Thunder likely win, but Denver’s offense makes the cover less “lock” than Celtics ML).

Best “lock” tonight with no juice worse than -120

You’re basically asking for the safest bet that’s still priced like a near coin-flip. That means we should avoid Celtics ML (it’ll be way worse than -120) and instead look for a moderate favorite / alt line / total that can reasonably be around -120 or better.

My Pick (fits the -120 cap best)

Thunder moneyline vs Nuggets — Medium-High confidence (and most likely to be ≤ -120 compared to the other “safe” sides)

Why

• The market has OKC around ~72–73% to win tonight (they’re also -7.5 on the spread), which usually maps to a moneyline that can land in the -120 to -200 range depending on book. Of the slate’s “likely winners,” this is the one that most plausibly lands near your -120 cutoff.
• It’s a strong team-quality spot: Thunder are 45–15 vs Nuggets 37–22.

If OKC ML is priced worse than -120 at your book (common)

Mavericks -6.5 vs Grizzlies — Medium confidence

• Dallas is about 62–63% win probability with -6.5 spread listed. That spread often prices around -110 to -120.

What I would not use under a -120 rule

• Celtics ML (too expensive; win prob ~91–92%)
• Knicks ML (likely too expensive; win prob ~73–74%)
• Pistons ML (win prob ~67%—could still be worse than -120)

Best bet under your constraint: Thunder ML (if you can find it -120 or better); otherwise Mavericks -6.5 is the cleanest “standard price” play tonight.